Background:
Modeling-based learning have been recognized as a valuable teaching tool that changes alternative conceptions into scientific conceptions. Toulmin’s argument pattern has been applied as a methodological tool for the analysis of students’ reasons and justifications.

Materials and methods:
The participants were 122 students in South Korea. Modeling-based learning was applied to the experimental group about apparent motion of Mars, explanation-based classes were provided to the comparison group. Students created a paper model and learned through small-group discussion about the astronomical phenomena. Among students in the experimental group, activities by two teams were video recorded and used as data for the study.

Results:
A variety of model exploration is essential for useful argumentation which includes the reasoning added with the claims. Results of comparing the concepts of apparent motion of Mars in the experimental group and comparison group, the ratio of students with correct concepts of the experimental group was higher than those of the comparison group.

Conclusions:
The analytic framework proposed by this study provides a useful codes for analyzing the argumentation, to identify how learners interact with each other. This study empirically examines that a time sequential pattern of argumentation frequently cross all three categories is a useful pattern in modeling-based learning.